§ research

Notes from inside
the order book.

Polymarket's order book is off-chain, so public analysis stops at settled trades. We record the book itself. These are short, reproducible studies computed from that archive — every number loads from the same parquet files we sell, so you can rerun all of it.

0012026-07-11world cup 2026microstructure

Anatomy of a last-minute goal: Spain–Belgium through the order book

Merino's 89th-minute winner repriced the market 62 points in 0.65 seconds. The spread hit 31¢, depth within 1¢ fell to $1.3k, and the first fill beat the book's own repricing by 35ms.

Read the note →

nextFrance–Spain, World Cup semifinal — Tuesday July 14. We're recording the book through the final; the breakdown publishes after the match.

Notes from insidethe order book.

Notes from inside
the order book.