Polymarket's order book is off-chain, so public analysis stops at settled trades. We record the book itself. These are short, reproducible studies computed from that archive — every number loads from the same parquet files we sell, so you can rerun all of it.
Two weeks after note 003 said no directory maps the ecosystem, PolyMart lists 136 tools in twelve hand-reviewed categories. Read against the 35-tool list the shape is unchanged — wallets watched, prices barely modeled — except that order-book history is now a category with vendors in it.
Every Polymarket market attached to the tournament, published open: minute bars, tick trades, on-chain fills with the settling wallet, and the full 25-level book for a final decided on penalties. Resolved outcomes for 99.9% of 39,497 markets, so calibration is a group-by.
A community-curated GitHub list is the best map of Polymarket's third-party ecosystem: 35 tools, nine categories, heaviest where wallets are watched and nearly empty where prices are modeled. The shape of it points straight at the missing input.
Spain–Argentina finished 0–0 in regulation and the draw still repriced 68 points — no goals, no jumps, just the clock. Meanwhile 96% of the resting liquidity walked out, and the spread never moved a hair.
Merino's 89th-minute winner repriced the market 62 points in 0.65 seconds. The spread hit 31¢, the book at the touch thinned to ~$1.3k, and the first fill beat the book's own repricing by 35ms.