How much Polymarket expects crypto to move over the next day

Annualized volatility implied by the prices of Polymarket's crypto Up/Down markets and strike ladders, blended to a constant one-day horizon the way the VIX blends option expiries. One number for each of the seven coins Polymarket runs Up/Down markets on, and one for all of them together weighted by market cap. Hourly values, published once a day.

Does it forecast? Free to view

Each hourly value against the volatility that actually happened over the following 24 hours, from 11 May. The naive forecast assumes the next day moves like the last one.

What it costs to move Polymarket Free to view

What it would take to shift the odds by a quarter on a Polymarket market (the equivalent of a 5.6¢ move on a 50-50 market, 1.8¢ at 90¢), read from the full order book at each day's close (00:00 UTC). The typical market is the median of every live market that traded at least $1,000 the day before (465 on 22 Oct); the more it costs, the deeper the market. Toward 50¢ makes a market less certain; away from 50¢ pushes the favourite. The headline leaves out Sports, Esports and Weather, whose same-day markets have settled by the close.

Liquidity, every sector rebased to 1 Free to view

One number per sector for how deep its markets are: what it costs to shift the odds by a quarter on the sector's typical market, both directions combined, set to 1 on its 12 May to 10 Jun average. 2 means moving that market now takes twice the money it did then. Higher is deeper.

Sector detail Free to view

Every sector in both directions, how the share ratio moves, and the markets that carry the depth, at the daily close: the last 90 days free, the full history since 12 May and the hourly readings with the L10 plan and up.

Share ratio, every sector

Shares to move away ÷ shares to move toward at each daily close, on the same scale. Click one to select it.

Inside the day: hourly, since 13 Oct

Show it on your site Free

The day's card and a live widget, free to show anywhere with a link back. The card is also what a shared link previews as. Add theme=light or theme=dark; the widget takes coin=btc and the others.

The card, refreshed daily

<a href="https://tickfoundry.com/index"><img src="https://tickfoundry.com/api/index/card?theme=light" width="600" alt="TFVX, the crypto volatility Polymarket's prices imply over the next day, from tickfoundry.com/index"></a>

The live widget

<iframe src="https://tickfoundry.com/api/index/embed" width="320" height="170" style="border:0" loading="lazy" title="TFVX, Polymarket-implied crypto volatility"></iframe>

The day's text as JSON: /api/index/post. The monthly note: /api/index/monthly.

Download the data L10 plan and up

The charts are free. To download the numbers, or see more than the last three months at the daily close, the index data comes with any L10 or L25 plan: the full history, hourly values, CSV files and the API, for your own and your team's research.

Enterprise index licence Enterprise

For desks, funds and products that use the numbers in what they sell or show: every market behind each reading, the term structure, 15-minute readings, and the right to use the values in products and client work.

Method Free to view

• TFVX: every minute, each live crypto market is read as a binary option, and its price and time to expiry give an implied volatility. Readings are pooled per expiry, made consistent across expiries, and read at exactly 24 hours, as the VIX does at 30 days. The hourly value is the median of that hour's minute readings. All coins: market-cap weights from the previous day's close.
• Cost to move: for every market that traded at least $1,000 the day before and is still live, what it costs to shift the odds by a quarter toward 50¢ and away from 50¢ (the equivalent of a 5.6¢ move on a 50-50 market, 1.8¢ at 90¢), from the full order book at each day's close (00:00 UTC). The typical market is the sector's median market; the share ratio divides the shares bought for the away move by those for the toward move.
• Liquidity index: per market, the geometric mean of the two directions; the sector's median of that, divided by its 12 May to 10 Jun average (or by Polymarket's typical market that day).
• View and quote single values freely, with attribution to TickFoundry.

The full methodology · method v1 · updated 23 Oct 05:30 UTC