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kalshi historical data / politics / KXUSMCAOUTCOMES
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What will happen with USMCA this year?, tick by tick.
Kalshi series KXUSMCAOUTCOMES: order book and trades, 2026-09-27 → 2026-10-23.

The order-book and trade history of Kalshi's What will happen with USMCA this year? series (a one-off event): top of book on every change, the 25-level book on every change in YES terms, every trade with the taker's side, and Kalshi's own ticker, with exchange timestamps to the millisecond. Captured by us from Kalshi's websocket on two independent legs and checked against the exchange's own book snapshots.

27 days2026-09-27 → 2026-10-23 · every day since its first · ~511 kB per day · 13 MB on disk · 8 open markets
pull KXUSMCAOUTCOMES days →schemapricing

What a KXUSMCAOUTCOMES day contains

Four parquet files per day, every market of the series in each. Sizes are this series' own averages over its 27 days on disk.

Top of book (every change)kalshi_l1

Best YES bid and ask with sizes and the spread, one row whenever either changed, derived tick by tick from the rebuilt book: not Kalshi's conflated ticker.

~33 kB per KXUSMCAOUTCOMES day
Order book, 25 levels, every changekalshi_l2

The whole ladder after every book event, in YES terms (the NO bids become the asks, at their sizes), 25 levels a side: wide columns bid_px_1 … ask_sz_25, plus the exchange's own hourly snapshots. Each row is self-contained, so you can start reading mid-day.

~431 kB per KXUSMCAOUTCOMES day
Tradeskalshi_trades

Every trade: YES and NO price, size in contracts, the taker's side, block-trade flag, trade id.

~3 kB per KXUSMCAOUTCOMES day
Kalshi ticker (~1 s)kalshi_ticker

Kalshi's own ticker feed, about one update a second per market: last price, YES bid/ask with sizes, cumulative volume and open interest in contracts and dollars.

~43 kB per KXUSMCAOUTCOMES day

KXUSMCAOUTCOMES markets

The 8 closing nearest to now, from Kalshi's daily market list. Each is a row key (market_ticker) in every table, captured from the day it opens until it settles.

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada each provide the written head-of-government confirmation required by Article 34.7 to extend USMCA for another 16-year term before Jan 1, 2027?: Formal 16-year extensionKXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-16Ycloses 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that an amendment to USMCA enters into force under Article 34.3 before Jan 1, 2027?: Formal USMCA amendmentKXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-AMENDcloses 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Canada provides the United States and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?: Canadian withdrawal noticeKXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-CANWcloses 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Mexico provides the United States and Canada written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?: Mexican withdrawal noticeKXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-MEXWcloses 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States, Mexico, and Canada jointly announce, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, an agreement in principle establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA while preserving it as a trilateral agreement, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?: Trilateral revised dealKXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-TRIcloses 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Canada reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?: U.S.–Canada interim agreementKXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-USCANcloses 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures before Jan 1, 2027?: U.S.–Mexico interim agreementKXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-USMEXcloses 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States provides Canada and Mexico written notice of withdrawal from USMCA under Article 34.6 before Jan 1, 2027?: U.S. withdrawal noticeKXUSMCAOUTCOMES-27-USWcloses 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC

Coverage notes for KXUSMCAOUTCOMES

  • First day on disk: 2026-09-27. That is the day our Kalshi capture began, not the series' launch. New days are added daily.
  • Trades before 2026-09-27. Kalshi's historical API has no tick-level order book, so earlier KXUSMCAOUTCOMES trades are in the whole-exchange trades history (from 2021-06-30, one file a day): filter market_ticker to this series' markets, which start with KXUSMCAOUTCOMES-.
  • The first day starts at 11:00 UTC. Our capture began at 11:00 UTC on 27 September 2026: 13 hours that day, not 24, and no CF Benchmarks index file (that capture starts on the 28th).
  • A book-quality dip on 2026-09-29. During a pipeline cutover 10,255 exchange snapshots disagreed with the rebuilt book (41 to 1,378 on every other day) and 16,678 negative levels were clamped to zero. The book resynchronises at every exchange snapshot; trades and ticker are unaffected.
  • Every bundle ships a README with the schemas and, per day, how often the rebuilt book matched the exchange's own snapshots, for your exact range.

Pricing

A month of KXUSMCAOUTCOMES, every table, is about 15 MB. Bought for Kalshi, Starter ($29/mo) carries top of book, trades and the ticker for every series plus one series of your choice, KXUSMCAOUTCOMES if you like, at full book depth; L10 ($49/mo) carries every series' book at 10 levels and L25 ($99/mo) the full 25-level book. Each includes 7 days before you join and every day after. Any free account can pull 2026-10-07, any series, up to 1.0 GB.

Starter: KXUSMCAOUTCOMES at full depth →L10: every series at 10 levelsL25: every series, 25 levelsfree sample day

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